Since I was a young student I have loved casinos, I love the glitz and glamor. Each face tells a story in these places and I imagine that they are all incredibly rich. Of course, the truth is probably a very different story. My friend recently announced that he had found a roulette gambling system with which he would win a lot of money at the casinos, but I had to stop him before he left for Monte Carlo with his savings from the construction company.
What my friend had discovered was called the ‘Monte Carlo’ or ‘Players’ fallacy; I think you can see the pertinent part of the name. This incredible roulette game system is based on the false premise that if you witness a series of deviations from the mean, these deviations will be offset by opposite deviations. So to put that in English, if you watch a roulette game and notice that a red number appears five times in a row, then it is statistically more likely that black will appear on the next spin.
This, of course, makes logical sense (as something you might expect or “due”) but it is mathematically incorrect. Each spin is a separate event and all previous spins have no relation to the next spin. This mathematical fallacy is also the basis of another highly touted roulette gambling system called the Martingale system. I’m sure anyone who’s been to a casino has heard this: you put your bet on saying a red number that appears and then if you miss, you keep doubling your bet until you win.
Of course, Martingales has a large following, but the existence of an extra ‘0’ on the wheel (or two in American casinos) is just one of the problems with this system. The other ยูฟ่าเบท main problem is that to guarantee the win you would need an infinite bet. I find online casinos quite amusing (aside from cheesy music); They also differ from real casinos in that they can never be truly random, as the computer is by its very nature incapable of creating truly random spins (although it can get very close).